Complexity Bias

Offer two explanations of the same event — one plain, one wrapped in technical fog — and watch which one the room respects. The fog wins. We are wired to suspect that simple things are shallow.

There is a reason. Effort is our usual proxy for value; what cost work to produce looks more serious. A tangled theory feels like expertise. A plain one feels like a guess — even when the plain one is right.

Whole professions live on this bias. The jargon of finance, of management, of wellness — much of it is decoration, and the decoration is the product. Strip the words away and a surprising amount of expertise reduces to common sense wearing expensive clothes.

The test to apply: could this be said simply? If yes, and it was not, ask what the complexity is hiding. The truth, as a rule, can survive plain speech. It is the impostors who need the fog.