Collingridge Dilemma

A new technology arrives. When it is young, it is easy to control — but nobody yet knows what harm it will do. By the time the harm is known, the technology is everywhere, and control is nearly impossible. Easy to change, hard to predict; predictable, impossible to change.

This dilemma governs far more than machines. A habit is easy to drop in the first month and invisible in the first month; by the time you can see its shape, it has roots. A company's culture, a city's traffic, a person's character — all are soft early and fixed late.

The uncomfortable conclusion: you cannot wait for certainty before steering. By the time certainty arrives, the steering wheel is decoration.

So act on weak signals, early, while the clay is wet. Review often. The future does not send warnings at full volume. It whispers, and the whisper is the warning.